The benchmark #Nifty opened a gap up 307.65 points at 8,949.10 but slipped after the #ReserveBank of India’s Press Conference on March 27. RBI reduced REPO rate by 0.75 pbs to 4.5% and CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) by 100 bps to 3% for banks in order to inject liquidity in the market but that did not boost the market much. The market did not cheer the FM conference also as it did not have any stimulus for the industries. Nifty remained volatile with bearish bias during the whole day and closed at 8,660.25 with a very small gain of 18.80 points but making a Bearish Candle on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, it made a #Bullish candle whereas, on the monthly chart, it made a bearish candle. The market needs positive cues from domestic or international markets (which are missing at present) to start moving upwards. If the Nifty could sustain above 9,000 level on a closing basis in upcoming trading session then we might see a pullback toward 9,400 and if Nifty falls below 8,094 it will continue its downward journey towards 7,500.
The FIIs and DIIs both were net buyers with a turnover of 355.78Cr and 1703.78Cr respectively. The market breadth was sideways with some negative bias having 23 stocks advance, 26 stocks decline, and 1 stock remained unchanged from the stack of nifty 50. The closing of #Nifty at 8,660.25 is well below 200DEMA at 11,323.42 but above the daily pivot at 8,565.13. The daily Stochastic has quickly mover to 72.14 and RSI is at 36 indicating the market is near to #overbought zone but with low strength. We may see some consolidation at this level before the next move.
Nifty’s new #resistancelevels are at 8,749, 8,883, 9,039, and 9,128 while the support levels are at 8,522, 8,451, 8,305, and 8,094. The fear gauge (India VIX) has been further decreased to 70.38 with increased ATR of Nifty and Bank Nifty due to fear of uncertainty of the markets which is driving the indices volatile. The daily trading range for the next session as per the Nifty chart seems to be very wide now from 8,094 to 9,128.
#BankNifty also followed the broader Index and closed at 19,969 with a very #smallgain of 355.10 points making a bearish candle on the daily chart. New resistance levels are at 20,201, 20,439, 20,802, and 21,176.85 while key support levels are at 19,766, 19,420, 19,096, and 18,782. The trading range for BN looks between 18,782 to 21,176.85 from the daily chart. The #PCR ratio for the current series (1st April 20) is 0.65 indicating bearish bias.
As per Nifty #OptionChain data (1st April), Put and Call writing was observed at almost all the levels. Unwinding was not observed at the Put as well as at the Call side due to the beginning of the new Options Series (1st April 2020). Max OI in PE is at approx 8,000 and CE is at 10,000. The #PCR for the current series is 0.77 which indicates a sideways to bearish bias in the market. OI data shows the possibility of the next trading range between 8,000 to 9,000 with volatile swings. Traders are advised to be careful from volatility and trade only trends with options strategies with close stops.
#Technicalanalysis with a sound understanding of the market is the key to trading success; however, unexpected (domestic or international) factors make the technical analysis go haywire for a while, hence we have to monitor fresh data and new dynamics of the market during trading hours to consistently make money. We trust the information will be helpful in your own analysis of the market and make trading a profitable and better experience. This analysis has been shared for educational purposes. Please seek your financial adviser’s guidance before trading or investing.
Happy Trading and Keep investing safely!
