And where is Nifty heading the week with Option Series expiring on 21 Nov 2019?
Nifty opened at 11,915.15 with a gap-up gain of 20 points and had a bullish pressure in the morning but as soon as it touched 11,945 profit booking started. In our previous technical analysis, we had expected a bullish bias with a range-bound move of Nifty and it being volatility at the level of 11,950 due to profit booking. Nifty remained in the small range of 11,870 to 11,945 with choppiness and closed almost flat with respect to the closing of the previous day, forming an indecisive candle having LH and LL candle on the daily chart. The FIIs were bearish today with the selling of -270.66Cr while DIIs were the net buyers with 309.45 Cr. From the Nifty 50 stack, only 29 stocks advanced and 20 stocks declined and one remained unchanged.
Today’s closing at 11884.5 is above daily Pivot at 11,916.12, weekly Pivot at 11,930.8 and above 200 DEMA at 11,337. Stochastic is at 39.3, RSI is at 61.27 while MACD is still above zero with a bearish crossover indicating the correction and consolidation phase. Nifty’s bullish structure is intact in the midterm however on short term correction may be on the cards. On the weekly chart, Nifty has shown an in-candle formation indication for some consolidation. If the index manages to sustain above 11,945, then we may see its bullish journey towards 12,000 to 12,100. Nifty closing below 11,800 on the EOD basis may take it towards 11,707. The daily resistance levels are at 11,905, 11,945, 11,973 and 12,005 while as support levels are at 11,873, 11,855, 11,814, and 11,786 for intraday trading. On an intraday chart, Nifty seems to be sliding in descending channel but supported by the lower trend line of Ascending channel which is providing it strong support. Looking at current immediate support and resistance levels at 60 minutes chart the next day trading range seems to be between 11,800 to 11,950.
On the Options front Put writing was seen at 11,700, 11,800, 11,900 levels while Call writing was seen at 11,900,11,950, 12,000 and 12,100 levels indicating the shifting of support and resistance levels closer indicates a range-bound session. Looking at the Open Interest data and the unchanged PCR at 0.93 the market range seems to be in the range of 11,800 to 11,950 for intraday with some corrections. Profit booking is expected as Nifty approaches 11,950, which may turn market volatile and choppy in intraday. The other inputs to impact the market are Q2 results, macro data along with domestic and international cues.
Technical analysis with a sound understanding of the market is the key to trading success, however, sometimes market forces are stronger than the past analysis. Unexpected (domestic or international) factors make the technical analysis go haywire for a while, hence we have to monitor fresh data and new dynamics of the market during trading hours to consistently make money.
We trust the information will be helpful in your own analysis of the market and make trading a profitable and better experience. This analysis has been shared for educational purposes. Please seek your financial adviser’s guidance before trading or investing.
Happy Trading and Keep investing safely!
