And where is Nifty heading on the expiry of this Option Series 14 Nov 2019?
Wednesday belonged to bears in the Dalal street. Nifty opened almost flat at 11,908 and tried to move upside, however, as soon as it touched the day’s high at 11,946.8 bears took over with heavy selling. Nifty saw days low at 11,823.20 losing 73 points at the end of the day and forming a bearish candle on daily as well as weekly charts. the day was saved a little by FIIs who were bullish with buying of 584.9 Cr while DIIs were the net sellers with -890.03 Cr. From the Nifty 50 stack, only 10 stocks advanced and 39 stocks declined and 1 remained unchanged clearly shaking the structure of NIfty index.
Today’s closing is below daily Pivot at 11,900, weekly Pivot at 11,930.8 and above 200 DEMA at 11,317. Stochastic is at 56.9, RSI is at 59.57 while MACD is still above zero with an upcoming bearish crossover indicating the correction and consolidation phase. If the index manages to sustain above 11,945, then we may see its bullish journey towards 12,000 to 12,100. Nifty closing below 11,790 on EOD basis may take it towards 11,707. The daily resistance levels are at 11,855, 11,905, 11,945, 11,982 and 12,005 while as support levels are at 11,814, 11,786, 11,757 and 11,707 for intraday trading. Looking at current immediate support and resistance levels the next day trading range seems to be between 11,850 to 12,050.
On the Options front, Put unwinding was seen across 11,500 to 11,900 levels while as Call writing was seen at 11,850, 11,900, 12,000, 12,100, 12,150 and 12,200 levels indicating the shifting of support and resistance levels on the lower side but yet having wide range indicating volatility in the coming session. Looking at the Open Interest data and the PCR at 0.55 (bearish bias) the market range seems to be in 11,750 to 11,950 for intraday with some correction and consolidation. Profit booking is expected as Nifty approaches 11,950, which may turn market volatile and choppy in intraday. The other inputs to impact the market this truncated week are Q2 results, macro data like Retail Inflation, Wholesale Inflation, Industrial Production, Trade Balance, Central Bank Policy of Japan, IIP data of China, etc. which will also impact the market.
Technical analysis with a sound understanding of the market is the key to trading success, however, sometimes market forces are stronger than the past analysis. Unexpected (domestic or international) factors make the technical analysis go haywire for a while, hence we have to monitor fresh data and new dynamics of the market during trading hours to consistently make money.
We trust the information will be helpful in your own analysis of the market and make trading a profitable and better experience. This analysis has been shared for educational purposes. Please seek your financial adviser’s guidance before trading or investing.
Happy Trading and Keep investing safely!
