Nifty and Market Analysis @ EOD on 18 09 2019…..
And where is it heading this weekly expiry on 19 Sept 2019?
Benchmark index Nifty remained choppy and range bound today despite opening 55 points higher at 10872.8. Traders took a breather waiting for the outcome of a two-days long Federal Reserve Committee meeting. The decisions were to be announced during the later part of the day. The market was dominated by bears and remained weak touching day’s low at 10,804.85 Weakness was witnessed throughout the day with some spurts of buying making the market choppy. The market closed at 10,840.65 after recovering some points and a daily gain of 23 points with a spinning top candle. Today’s candle formed in candle consolidation pattern thus indicating move in favors of bears on the daily chart.
The DIIs were the net buyer (780.45Cr) and FIIs remained the net seller (959.5 Cr). Only 17 stocks advanced while 33 declined from 50 stocks of Nifty Index. On the options front, the Retail clients are bullish while FIIs, DIIs, and PROs are still bearish.
Today’s closing at 10,840.65 is below the daily Pivot at 10871.4 and Weekly Pivot at 11,016.72. The Index remained below the lower trend line of ascending channel on the daily chart which definitely is not a piece of good news for bulls. Besides its continuing its journey in descending channel with Triangle breakout making the position of bears much stronger. Stochastic has corrected in the last four sessions from overbought zone to 27.02 level and RSI is at 42.57 but remains in a sideways trend.
Consolidation of Nifty continues with resistance at 10,846, 10879.6, 10,961, 10,961, 11,000, 11,022.1 (high of Aug 30), 11,053.8 (50% Fib Level), and 11,100 for the expiry. On the downside, it has support) at, 10,806 (61% Fib wrt 26 Oct 2018), and 10,746 (Closing of 5th Sept), and 10,700, 10637. To resume its bullish move Nifty needs to cross and sustain above 11,150 on a closing basis. Looking at current immediate support and resistance level for the next week Nifty has a wide range from 10,700 to 11,150.
As per Option Chain data the trading range today the range of nifty has broadened from 10,600 to 11,200. In fact, noticeable put writing was seen at lower levels i.e. 10,600 and 10,700 along with call writing at lower levels at 10800 & 10900. Also, put and call unwinding was seen at higher levels thus indicating bearishness at higher levels. Looking at the Open Interest data at various strike rates along with the strike shifting forces indicate the possibility of high volatility in the market. The Nifty range for the coming week could be 11,800 to 10,950.
Clients Ce Long Pe Long Ce Short Pe Short
Retail 9,30,134 4,86,583 7,39,241 7,63,870
DII 27,132 1,02,159 – –
FII 1,85,882 3,76,676 1,69,694 1,38,039
Pro 1,76,842 1,71,953 4,11,055 2,35,462
PCR @EOD (for Nifty Expiry on 19 Sept OC) is at 0.64 which indicates bearish outlook for the next trading day. The PCR for September month has increased slightly to 0.82 from 0.79 (from the previous day) showing bearish bias. Nevertheless, let’s look at how the Option data changes during trading hours to observe the new dynamics of Nifty in the market.
We trust the information provided will be helpful in your analysis of the market and make trading a profitable and better experience. The information has been shared for educational purposes. Please seek your financial adviser’s guidance before trading or investing.
Happy Trading and Keep investing safely!
